Technical Analysis : Candlestick Bullish Reversal Patterns

Candlestick Bullish Reversal Patterns

Bullish Confirmation

Patterns can form with one or more candlesticks; most require bullish confirmation. The actual reversal indicates that buyers overcame prior selling pressure, but it remains unclear whether new buyers will bid prices higher. Without confirmation, these patterns would be considered neutral and merely indicate a potential support level at best. Bullish confirmation means further upside follow through and can come as a gap up, long white candlestick or high volume advance. Because candlestick patterns are short-term and usually effective for only 1 or 2 weeks, bullish confirmation should come within 1 to 3 days after the pattern.

Existing Downtrend

To be considered a bullish reversal, there should be an existing downtrend to reverse. A bullish engulfing at new highs can hardly be considered a bullish reversal pattern. Such formations would indicate continued buying pressure and could be considered a continuation pattern. In the Ciena example below, the pattern in the red oval looks like a bullish engulfing, but formed near resistance after about a 30 point advance. The pattern does show strength, but is more likely a continuation at this point than a reversal pattern.

The existence of a downtrend can be determined by using moving averages, peak/trough analysis or trend lines. A security could be deemed in a downtrend based on one of the following:

• The security is trading below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA).
• Each reaction peak and trough is lower than the previous.
• The security is trading below its trend line.

These are just examples of possible guidelines to determine a downtrend. Some traders may prefer shorter downtrends and consider securities below the 10-day EMA. Defining criteria will depend on your trading style and personal preferences.

Other Technical Analysis

Candlesticks provide an excellent means to identify short-term reversals, but should not be used alone. Other aspects of technical analysis can and should be incorporated to increase reversal robustness. Below are three ideas on how traditional technical analysis might be combined with candlestick analysis.

Support

Look for bullish reversals at support levels to increase robustness. Support levels can be identified with moving averages, previous reaction lows, trend lines or Fibonacci retracements.

Momentum

Use oscillators to confirm improving momentum with bullish reversals. Positive divergences in MACD, PPO, Stochastics, RSI, StochRSI or Williams %R would indicate improving momentum and increase the robustness behind a bullish reversal pattern.

Money Flows

Money Flows use volume-based indicators to access buying and selling pressure. On Balance Volume (OBV), Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and the Accumulation/Distribution Line can be used in conjunction with candlesticks. Strength in any of these would increase the robustness of a reversal.

For those that want to take it one step further, all three aspects could be combined for the ultimate signal. Look for bullish candlestick reversal in securities trading near support with positive divergences and signs of buying pressure.

Technical Analysis : Candlesticks

Introduction to Candlesticks

History

The Japanese began using technical analysis to trade rice in the 17th century. While this early version of technical analysis was different from the US version initiated by Charles Dow around 1900, many of the guiding principles were very similar:

• The "what" (price action) is more important than the "why" (news, earnings, and so on).
• All known information is reflected in the price.
• Buyers and sellers move markets based on expectations and emotions (fear and greed).
• Markets fluctuate.
• The actual price may not reflect the underlying value.

According to Steve Nison, candlestick charting first appeared sometime after 1850. Much of the credit for candlestick development and charting goes to a legendary rice trader named Homma from the town of Sakata. It is likely that his original ideas were modified and refined over many years of trading eventually resulting in the system of candlestick charting that we use today.

Formation

In order to create a candlestick chart, you must have a data set that contains open, high, low and close values for each time period you want to display. The hollow or filled portion of the candlestick is called "the body" (also referred to as "the real body"). The long thin lines above and below the body represent the high/low range and are called "shadows" (also referred to as "wicks" and "tails"). The high is marked by the top of the upper shadow and the low by the bottom of the lower shadow. If the stock closes higher than its opening price, a hollow candlestick is drawn with the bottom of the body representing the opening price and the top of the body representing the closing price. If the stock closes lower than its opening price, a filled candlestick is drawn with the top of the body representing the opening price and the bottom of the body representing the closing price.

Compared to traditional bar charts, many traders consider candlestick charts more visually appealing and easier to interpret. Each candlestick provides an easy-to-decipher picture of price action. Immediately a trader can compare the relationship between the open and close as well as the high and low. The relationship between the open and close is considered vital information and forms the essence of candlesticks. Hollow candlesticks, where the close is greater than the open, indicate buying pressure. Filled candlesticks, where the close is less than the open, indicate selling pressure.

Technical Analysis : Trend Lines

Trend Lines

Technical analysis is built on the assumption that prices trend. Trend Lines are an important tool in technical analysis for both trend identification and confirmation. A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points and then extends into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. Many of the principles applicable to support and resistance levels can be applied to trend lines as well.

Definition

Uptrend Line

An uptrend line has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two or more low points. The second low must be higher than the first for the line to have a positive slope. Uptrend lines act as support and indicate that net-demand (demand less supply) is increasing even as the price rises. A rising price combined with increasing demand is very bullish, and shows a strong determination on the part of the buyers. As long as prices remain above the trend line, the uptrend is considered solid and intact. A break below the uptrend line indicates that net-demand has weakened and a change in trend could be imminent.

Downtrend Line

A downtrend line has a negative slope and is formed by connecting two or more high points. The second high must be lower than the first for the line to have a negative slope. Downtrend lines act as resistance, and indicate that net-supply (supply less demand) is increasing even as the price declines. A declining price combined with increasing supply is very bearish, and shows the strong resolve of the sellers. As long as prices remain below the downtrend line, the downtrend is solid and intact. A break above the downtrend line indicates that net-supply is decreasing and that a change of trend could be imminent.

Validation

It takes two or more points to draw a trend line. The more points used to draw the trend line, the more validity attached to the support or resistance level represented by the trend line. It can sometimes be difficult to find more than 2 points from which to construct a trend line. Even though trend lines are an important aspect of technical analysis, it is not always possible to draw trend lines on every price chart. Sometimes the lows or highs just don't match up, and it is best not to force the issue. The general rule in technical analysis is that it takes two points to draw a trend line and the third point confirms the validity.

The chart of Microsoft (MSFT) shows an uptrend line that has been touched 4 times. After the third touch in Nov-99, the trend line was considered a valid line of support. Now that the stock has bounced off of this level a fourth time, the soundness of the support level is enhanced even more. As long as the stock remains above the trend line (support), the trend will remain in control of the bulls. A break below would signal that net-supply was increasing and that a change in trend could be imminent

Conclusion

Trend lines can offer great insight, but if used improperly, they can also produce false signals. Other items - such as horizontal support and resistance levels or peak-and-trough analysis - should be employed to validate trend line breaks. While trend lines have become a very popular aspect of technical analysis, they are merely one tool for establishing, analyzing, and confirming a trend. Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve merely as a warning that a change in trend may be imminent. By using trend line breaks for warnings, investors and traders can pay closer attention to other confirming signals for a potential change in trend.

Technical Analysis : Support and Resistance

Support and Resistance

Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control.

What Is Support?

Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.

Support does not always hold and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls. A decline below support indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below the previous low. Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established at a lower level.

Where Is Support Established?

Support levels are usually below the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near support. Technical analysis is not an exact science and it is sometimes difficult to set exact support levels. In addition, price movements can be volatile and dip below support briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a support level broken if the price closes 1/8 below the established support level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish support zones.

What Is Resistance?

Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.

Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that the bulls have won out over the bears. A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyers have increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices. In addition, sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above the previous high. Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to be established at a higher level.

Where Is Resistance Established?

Resistance levels are usually above the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near resistance. In addition, price movements can be volatile and rise above resistance briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a resistance level broken if the price closes 1/8 above the established resistance level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish resistance zones.

Matlamat Perlu Ditulis (You Must Write Your Dream Down)

Bayangkan matlamat seperti sebuah bangunan dan kita adalah arkitek. Arkitek akan mencipta idea dan menuliskan idea itu kedalam kertas/laptopnya....bangunan-bangunan terulung dan bertaraf dunia tidak dapat direalisasikan jika tidak dilakar atas kertas..begitu juga dengan diri kita. Lahir dan imaginasikan ke dalam minda, dan zahirkan dalam bentuk yang boleh dilihat. "APA YANG MATA,HATI DAN MINDA LIHAT, MINDA AKAN PERCAYA". 

 Apa yang kita percaya akan menjadi realiti suatu hari nanti...apabila menulis matlamat sebenarnya kita menjelaskan keinginan kita, dan minda akan memberi isyarat keseluruh badan supaya bertindak sesuai dengan matlamat kita, ia seolah memberi suatu komitmen pada diri kita..matlamat yg tidak dicatat atau tidak diingatkan selalu akan hilang dan hanyut begitu sahaja. Kebanyakan orang berjaya dengan cara membenarkan minda percaya apa yang dilihat dan dia yakin..

Jika kita bermatlamat menjadi jutawan, kita akan jadi jutawan bila minda percaya. Setiap perkara yang diiginkan,matlamat perlu wujud sebanyak 2 kali : 

 1.dalam minda 

2.catatkan then baru akan muncul dalam realiti. 

APABILA BERDOA..jangan berdoa dengan ucapan yang negatif...kajian mendapati apabila selalu sebut perkataan gagal, gagal akan selalu bermain dalam kepala dan minda akan selalu ingatkan kita bahawa kita selalu gagal...sepatutnya bila berdoa ucapkan "kurniakanlah aku kemurah rezeki,berilah aku kejayaan".....jangan ucap "jangan gagalkan aku, aku takut gagal". Perkataan sebegini melemahkn motivasi kepada diri kita, memberi unsur-unsur negatif terhadap diri kita..menetapkan dan menulis matlamat adalah seperti sistem GPS, minda adalah kereta dan kita adalah pemandunya...

~Allah MAha Perancang atas Segala perancangan manusia~

Strengths of Technical Analysis

Strengths of Technical Analysis

Focus on Price

If the objective is to predict the future price, then it makes sense to focus on price movements. Price movements usually precede fundamental developments. By focusing on price action, technicians are automatically focusing on the future. The market is thought of as a leading indicator and generally leads the economy by 6 to 9 months. To keep pace with the market, it makes sense to look directly at the price movements. More often than not, change is a subtle beast. Even though the market is prone to sudden knee-jerk reactions, hints usually develop before significant moves. A technician will refer to periods of accumulation as evidence of an impending advance and periods of distribution as evidence of an impending decline.

Supply, Demand, and Price Action

Many technicians use the open, high, low and close when analyzing the price action of a security. There is information to be gleaned from each bit of information. Separately, these will not be able to tell much. However, taken together, the open, high, low and close reflect forces of supply and demand.

The annotated example above shows a stock that opened with a gap up. Before the open, the number of buy orders exceeded the number of sell orders and the price was raised to attract more sellers. Demand was brisk from the start. The intraday high reflects the strength of demand (buyers). The intraday low reflects the availability of supply (sellers). The close represents the final price agreed upon by the buyers and the sellers. In this case, the close is well below the high and much closer to the low. This tells us that even though demand (buyers) was strong during the day, supply (sellers) ultimately prevailed and forced the price back down. Even after this selling pressure, the close remained above the open. By looking at price action over an extended period of time, we can see the battle between supply and demand unfold. In its most basic form, higher prices reflect increased demand and lower prices reflect increased supply.

Support/Resistance

Simple chart analysis can help identify support and resistance levels. These are usually marked by periods of congestion (trading range) where the prices move within a confined range for an extended period, telling us that the forces of supply and demand are deadlocked. When prices move out of the trading range, it signals that either supply or demand has started to get the upper hand. If prices move above the upper band of the trading range, then demand is winning. If prices move below the lower band, then supply is winning.

Pictorial Price History

Even if you are a tried and true fundamental analyst, a price chart can offer plenty of valuable information. The price chart is an easy to read historical account of a security's price movement over a period of time. Charts are much easier to read than a table of numbers. On most stock charts, volume bars are displayed at the bottom. With this historical picture, it is easy to identify the following:

• Reactions prior to and after important events.
• Past and present volatility.
• Historical volume or trading levels.
• Relative strength of a stock versus the overall market.

Assist with Entry Point

Technical analysis can help with timing a proper entry point. Some analysts use fundamental analysis to decide what to buy and technical analysis to decide when to buy. It is no secret that timing can play an important role in performance. Technical analysis can help spot demand (support) and supply (resistance) levels as well as breakouts. Simply waiting for a breakout above resistance or buying near support levels can improve returns.

It is also important to know a stock's price history. If a stock you thought was great for the last 2 years has traded flat for those two years, it would appear that Wall Street has a different opinion. If a stock has already advanced significantly, it may be prudent to wait for a pullback. Or, if the stock is trending lower, it might pay to wait for buying interest and a trend reversal.

Source : http://stockcharts.com

Technical Analysis Part 2

General Steps to Technical Evaluation

Many technicians employ a top-down approach that begins with broad-based macro analysis. The larger parts are then broken down to base the final step on a more focused/micro perspective. Such an analysis might involve three steps:

1. Broad market analysis through the major indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, NASDAQ and NYSE Composite.
2. Sector analysis to identify the strongest and weakest groups within the broader market.
3. Individual stock analysis to identify the strongest and weakest stocks within select groups.

The beauty of technical analysis lies in its versatility. Because the principles of technical analysis are universally applicable, each of the analysis steps above can be performed using the same theoretical background. You don't need an economics degree to analyze a market index chart. You don't need to be a CPA to analyze a stock chart. Charts are charts. It does not matter if the time frame is 2 days or 2 years. It does not matter if it is a stock, market index or commodity. The technical principles of support, resistance, trend, trading range and other aspects can be applied to any chart. While this may sound easy, technical analysis is by no means easy. Success requires serious study, dedication and an open mind.

Chart Analysis

Technical analysis can be as complex or as simple as you want it. The example below represents a simplified version. Since we are interested in buying stocks, the focus will be on spotting bullish situations.

Overall Trend: The first step is to identify the overall trend. This can be accomplished with trend lines, moving averages or peak/trough analysis. As long as the price remains above its uptrend line, selected moving averages or previous lows, the trend will be considered bullish.

Support: Areas of congestion or previous lows below the current price mark support levels. A break below support would be considered bearish.

Resistance: Areas of congestion and previous highs above the current price mark the resistance levels. A break above resistance would be considered bullish.

Momentum: Momentum is usually measured with an oscillator such as MACD. If MACD is above its 9-day EMA (exponential moving average) or positive, then momentum will be considered bullish, or at least improving.

Buying/Selling Pressure: For stocks and indices with volume figures available, an indicator that uses volume is used to measure buying or selling pressure. When Chaikin Money Flowis above zero, buying pressure is dominant. Selling pressure is dominant when it is below zero.

Relative Strength: The price relative is a line formed by dividing the security by a benchmark. For stocks it is usually the price of the stock divided by the S&P 500. The plot of this line over a period of time will tell us if the stock is outperforming (rising) or under performing (falling) the major index.

The final step is to synthesize the above analysis to ascertain the following:

• Strength of the current trend.
• Maturity or stage of current trend.
• Reward to risk ratio of a new position.
• Potential entry levels for new long position.

Technical Analysis

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time.

Technical analysis is applicable to stocks, indices, commodities, futures or any tradable instrument where the price is influenced by the forces of supply and demand. Price refers to any combination of the open, high, low, or close for a given security over a specific time frame. The time frame can be based on intraday (1-minute, 5-minutes, 10-minutes, 15-minutes, 30-minutes or hourly), daily, weekly or monthly price data and last a few hours or many years. In addition, some technical analysts include volume or open interest figures with their study of price action.

The Basis of Technical Analysis

At the turn of the century, the Dow Theory laid the foundations for what was later to become modern technical analysis. Dow Theory was not presented as one complete amalgamation, but rather pieced together from the writings of Charles Dow over several years. Of the many theorems put forth by Dow, three stand out:

• Price Discounts Everything
• Price Movements Are Not Totally Random
• "What" Is More Important than "Why"

Price Discounts Everything

This theorem is similar to the strong and semi-strong forms of market efficiency. Technical analysts believe that the current price fully reflects all information. Because all information is already reflected in the price, it represents the fair value, and should form the basis for analysis. After all, the market price reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, including traders, investors, portfolio managers, buy-side analysts, sell-side analysts, market strategist, technical analysts, fundamental analysts and many others. It would be folly to disagree with the price set by such an impressive array of people with impeccable credentials. Technical analysis utilizes the information captured by the price to interpret what the market is saying with the purpose of forming a view on the future.

Prices Movements are not Totally Random

Most technicians agree that prices trend. However, most technicians also acknowledge that there are periods when prices do not trend. If prices were always random, it would be extremely difficult to make money using technical analysis. In his book, Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis, Jack Schwager states:

"One way of viewing it is that markets may witness extended periods of random fluctuation, interspersed with shorter periods of nonrandom behavior. The goal of the chartist is to identify those periods (i.e. major trends)."

So, why is investing a smart idea?

Most people want to invest in order to create wealth. It is relatively painless, and the rewards are plentiful, if you do your homework right, that is. By investing well in the stock market, you will be able to create passive income from your extra funds or savings. That will lead to a more comfortable and enjoyable live, especially when you are able to reach financial freedom through income generated by your investment. 

Today, there are many good articles and sites in the Internet that discuss the various aspects of investing. We will point you to those content wherever applicable, and highlight the key points that are most important to investors in general. Specifically, we will also highlight the key information that is most relevant to you as a stock investor. 

Many individuals have claimed that the stock market is no longer the money maker that it used to be. They also say that the only good way to earn money these days is to put as much as possible into savings accounts. To the contrary, however, it is still very possible to make money by investing in the stock market. Obviously, you won't be the next Warren Buffett, but you can make a fairly large amount of money through stocks. All it takes is some smart investing and a little bit of money to do so.

Conclusion...

By following the time-tested and proven strategies for investing in the stock market, a person can still earn a profit on their investments. It isn't as impossible as economists have proclaimed in recent months. The stock market is still a viable place to earn good amounts of money, so you shouldn't rule it out now or ever. In fact, the smart and strategic investor can still hope to make a high amount of profits from the market throughout the foreseeable future. Economists may have lost hope in the ability to make a fortune off the stock market, but the possibility is still there for the smartest investors. Luckily, you don't even have to be an investor with millions of dollars available - even small investors can earn a good deal of money from their investments.

Gold Dives To New Low — Why It Could Lose Another 20%

The market poured more salt into the gold bulls' wounds Wednesday as precious metals prices sank to new lows.

The decline came as the dollar continued rising despite lower-than-expected economic growth numbers. That economic news eased fears of a tapering in the Federal Reserve's stimulus program, which has helped bolster gold in the past.

Spot gold prices fell 4.05% to $1,227 an ounce. On the stock market SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), tracking a 10th of an ounce of bullion, dropped, 4.20% to 118.28 — its lowest price since August 2010.

GLD is trading 23% below its 40-week moving average, indicating it's much more oversold now than at its October 2008 bottom, when it traded 18% below that key line. GLD traded only 5% below its 40-week when it troughed in October 2006.

"It's trading on a very psychological basis rather than to actual fundamental drivers," said Adam Grimes, chief investment officer at Waverly Advisors in Corning, N.Y.

Longview Tactical Allocation , a mutual fund with $25 million in assets that Grimes co-manages, started shorting gold futures June 7 to profit from falling prices. His ultimate price target is $850 an ounce, down 31% from Wednesday's price. He agrees gold is very oversold but says it can keep getting more oversold.

"Watch for news of gold producers shutting down because of market prices (falling) below production cost to mark the bottom," said Tom McClellan, founder of the McClellan Market Report.

It costs miners about $1,000 to produce an ounce of gold, Fourth Quadrant Asset Management CEO Patrick Hejlik estimates. He believes gold should trade around that price given the ample supply amid falling demand, especially from China and India. Those two countries account for nearly half of the global market.

"Slowing global trade limits central bank demand, as there is lesser need to hedge dollar-denominated trade exposure," Hejlik emailed.

India has raised gold-import duties from 6% to 8% to control inflow. At the same time, heavy depreciation in the rupee has raised prices. The physical buying craze in the Middle East, Asia and India seen in late April and May has faded and there's been significant stockpiling in China over the past two months, Credit Suisse analysts wrote in a commodities forecast released Wednesday.

They expect the yellow metal to sink to $1,150 an ounce in 12 months as the fundamental reasons for owning it as a safe haven in case of financial Armageddon and inflation have diminished. Global inflation is falling despite five years of quantitative easing in the U.S. and 12 in Japan. When the Federal Reserve normalizes monetary policy and allows interest rates to rise, investors will favor assets with yields.

Precious metals ETFs that hold gold, silver, platinum and palladium saw $1 billion, or 1.7% of assets, in outflow in the past week, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. Investors pulled out $1.7 billion, or 2.6% of assets, in the past month and $19.3 billion, or nearly 24% of assets, year to date.

ETF gold holdings have shrunk by 515 tons so far this year to 2,115 tons, according to Credit Suisse.

"Annual jewelry demand would need to grow by 20% to 25% year over year to absorb the ETF liquidation seen during just the first five months of this year," Credit Suisse analysts wrote.

Read More At Investor's Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/investing-etfs/062613-661537-gold-prices-dives-stands-to-lose-more.htm?ven=taboolacp&utm_source=taboola#ixzz2Xa6u26Ab 

Business

An organization or economic system where goods and services are exchanged for one another or for money. Every business requires some form of investment and enough customers to whom its output can be sold on a consistent basis in order to make a profit. Businesses can be privately owned, not-for-profit or state-owned. An example of a corporate business is PepsiCo, while a mom-and-pop catering business is a private enterprise.

Read more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/business.html#ixzz2Xa5XmIA0